Survival for bile duct cancer
Survival depends on different factors. So no one can tell you exactly how long you will live.
Doctors usually work out the outlook for a certain disease by looking at large groups of people. Because this cancer is less common, survival is harder to estimate than for other, more common cancers.
Some of the statistics have to be based on a small number of people. Remember, they can't tell you what will happen in your individual case.
Your doctor can give you more information about your own outlook (prognosis).
About these statistics
The terms 1 year survival and 5 year survival don't mean that you will only live for 1 or 5 years.
The NHS, other health organisations, and researchers collect information. They watch what happens to people with cancer in the years after their diagnosis. 5 years is a common time point to measure survival. But some people live much longer than this.
5 year survival is the number of people who have not died from their cancer within 5 years after diagnosis.
Survival by stage
There are no UK wide statistics available for bile duct cancer survival by stage.
The statistics below come from America. They come from the National Cancer Institute's SEER programme. They are for people diagnosed with bile duct cancer between 2012 and 2018. Please be aware that these figures might not be a true picture of survival in the UK. This is due to differences in American health care systems, data collection and the population.
The American statistics are split into 3 stage groups – localised, regional and distant cancers. In the UK, your doctor might not use these terms. Instead, they might describe your cancer as a number stage (stage 1 to 4).
The following descriptions are a guide to help you understand whether your cancer is localised, regional or distant. This isn’t straight forward and will depend on your individual situation. Talk to your doctor if you are unsure which group you are in.
- localised - usually includes stage 1 and 2 cancers that haven’t spread outside the bile duct
- regional - usually includes stage 3 cancers that have spread outside the bile duct into lymph nodes or surrounding tissues
- distant - stage 4 cancers that have spread to other parts of the body, away from the bile duct
The statistics are also split into 2 types of bile duct cancer:
- intrahepatic bile duct cancer that starts in the liver
- extrahepatic bile duct cancer that starts outside the liver (perihilar and distal bile duct cancer)
Localised
Almost 25 out of 100 people (almost 25%) survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they are diagnosed.
Regional
Around 10 out of 100 people (around 10%) survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they are diagnosed.
Distant
Almost 5 out of 100 people (almost 5%) survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they are diagnosed.
Localised
Almost 20 out of 100 people (almost 20%) survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they are diagnosed.
Regional
Almost 20 out of 100 people (almost 20%) survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they are diagnosed.
Distant
Only 2 out of 100 people (only 2%) survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they are diagnosed.
Survival Rates for Bile Duct Cancer
American Cancer Society website, accessed June 2024.
The American Cancer Society relies on information from the SEER database, maintained by the National Cancer Institute (NCI).
These statistics are for relative survival. Relative survival takes into account that some people will die of causes other than cancer. The statistics are from America. They calculate relative survival using the general survival of the US population. This might not be a true picture of general survival in the UK population.
Survival for all stages of bile duct cancer
There are no UK wide statistics available for bile duct cancer survival. The following statistics are provided by the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS).
1 year survival
Almost 30 out of 100 people (almost 30%) survived their cancer for 1 year or more after they were diagnosed.
This is for people diagnosed in England between 2017 and 2019.
5 year survival
5 out of 100 people (5%) survived their cancer for 5 years or more after they were diagnosed.
This is for people diagnosed in England between 2014 and 2016.
1 year survival statistics
National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS), detailed statistics from the ‘Get Data Out’ programme, accessed May 2024
These figures are for people diagnosed in England between 2017 and 2019.
5 year survival statistics
National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS), detailed statistics from the ‘Get Data Out’ programme, accessed May 2024
These figures are for people diagnosed in England between 2014 and 2016.
These statistics are for net survival. Net survival estimates the number of people who survive their cancer rather than calculating the number of people diagnosed with cancer who are still alive. In other words, it is the survival of cancer patients after taking into account that some people would have died from other causes if they had not had cancer.
What affects survival
Your outlook depends on the stage of the cancer when it was diagnosed. This means how big it is and whether it has spread.
It also depends on:
- which bile ducts the cancer is in
- whether you can have surgery to completely remove it
Your general health and fitness also affect survival. This is because the fitter you are, the better you may be able to cope with your cancer and treatment.
