Cervical cancer risk

Preventable cases

Cervical cancer cases are preventable, UK, 2015

 

Caused by infections

Cervical cancer cases caused by infections, UK, 2015

 

 

Caused by smoking

Cervical cancer cases caused by smoking, UK, 2015

 

Caused by occupation

Cervical cancer cases caused by workplace exposures, UK, 2015

 

The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cervical cancer is 1 in 130 (1%) for females born in 1961 in the UK.[1]

These figures have been calculated on the assumption that the possibility of having more than one diagnosis of cervical cancer over the course of a lifetime is very low ('Current Probability' method).[2]

See also

Lifetime risk for all cancers combined and cancers compared

Cervical cancer incidence statistics

How risk is calculated

Want to generate bespoke preventable cancers stats statements? Download our interactive statement generator.

References

  1. Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK 2023.
  2. Estève J, Benhamou E, Raymond L. Statistical methods in cancer research. Volume IV. Descriptive epidemiology. IARC Sci Publ. 1994;(128):1-302.

About this data

Data is for UK, past and projected cancer incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality rates for those born in 1961, ICD-10 C15.

Calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK, 2023 (as yet unpublished). Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cancer for people in the UK born in 1961. Based on method from Esteve et al. 1994 [2], using projected cancer incidence (using data up to 2018) calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK and projected all-cause mortality (using data up to 2020, with adjustment for COVID impact) calculated by Office for National Statistics. Differences from previous analyses are attributable mainly toslowing pace of improvement in life expectancy, and also to slowing/stabilising increases in cancer incidence.

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99.8% of cervical cancer cases in the UK are preventable.[1]

Cervical cancer is associated with a number of risk factors.[2,3]

Cervical Cancer Risk Factors

  Increases risk Decreases risk
'Sufficient' or 'convincing' evidence
  • Diethylstilbestrol (in utero exposure)[a]
  • Oestrogen-progestogen contraceptives
  • Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1
  • Human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59
  • Tobacco smoking
  
'Limited' or 'Probable' evidence
  • HPV types 26, 53, 66, 67, 68, 70, 73, 82
  

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) classifications.

a IARC classifies evidence on in utero diethylstilbestrol exposure as sufficient for cervical adenocarcinoma; and as limited for cervical squamous cell carcinoma.

See also

Want to generate bespoke preventable cancers stats statements? Download our interactive statement generator.

Find out more about the definitions and evidence for this data

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

Use our interactive tool to explore risk factors for cervical cancer

References

  1.  Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.
  2. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 117. Accessed January 2017.
  3. World Cancer Research Fund / American Institute for Cancer Research. Continuous Update Project Findings & Reports. Accessed October 2016.
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International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1]

HPV infection

99.8% of cervical cancer cases in the UK are caused by HPV infection Open a glossary item;[2] however some HPV types are high-risk for cervical cancer, others are low-risk.

HPV infection is common, but progresses to cervical cancer in a minority of cases.[3] Around 12% of women without cervical abnormalities in the UK and Ireland are infected with high-risk HPV types, a meta-analysis has shown.[4] The highest prevalence is in younger women.[4] Around half of HPV infections clear within 6-12 months, though high-risk HPV types persist longer than low-risk types, a meta-analysis showed.[5]

Fewer than 10% of persistent HPV infections progress to carcinoma in situ,[5] which left untreated, can progress to cervical cancer.[3]

HPV16 and HPV18 account for 58% and 16% respectively of all cervical cancer cases in Europe, a pooled analysis showed.[6] These types are protected against by the UK HPV vaccination programme.

Cervical cancer risk is not associated with infection with low-risk HPV types, cohort studies have shown.[7,8] Cervical cancer risk is higher in women with genital warts (GW) versus those without, a cohort study showed;[9] though GW are usually caused by low-risk HPV types (6 and 11), co-infection with high-risk HPV types is likely.[9]

HPV exposure

Other factors may be associated with cervical cancer risk because they increase the risk of Human papillomavirus (HPV) exposure or persistent HPV infection (and/or may have direct effects, independent of HPV).[10]

Cervical cancer risk is almost three times higher in women who have had 6 or more sexual partners, compared with those who have had only one, a pooled analysis showed.[11] Cervical cancer risk is around doubled in women who first had sexual intercourse aged 14 or younger, compared with those who did so aged 25 or older, a pooled analysis showed.[11]

Cervical cancer risk is reduced in women whose only current male sexual partner is circumcised, compared with those whose partner is uncircumcised, a systematic review showed;[12] HPV prevalence is lower in circumcised versus uncircumcised men, a meta-analysis showed.[13]

UK portrait version shown here. Country versions, cancers caused by other risk factors, and landscape formats are available for free from our cancer risk publications.

See also

See IARC's classifications on the role of this risk factor

Find out more about the definitions and evidence for this data

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our health information about HPV infection and cancer

References

  1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 117. Accessed January 2017.
  2. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.
  3. Kulasingam SL, Havrilesky L, Ghebre R, Myers ER. Screening for Cervical Cancer: A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Rockville (MD): Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (US); 2011.
  4. Anderson L, O'Rorke M, Jamison J, Wilson R, Gavin A; HPV Working Group members Prevalence of human papillomavirus in women attending cervical screening in the UK and Ireland: new data from northern Ireland and a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Med Virol 2013;85(2):295-308.
  5. Rositch AF, Koshiol J, Hudgens MG. Patterns of persistent genital human papillomavirus infection among women worldwide: a literature review and meta-analysis. Int J Cancer 2013;133(6):1271-85.
  6. Smith JS, Lindsay L, Hoots, et al. Human papillomavirus type distribution in invasive cervical cancer and high-grade cervical lesions: a meta-analysis update. Int J Cancer 2007;121(3):621-32.
  7. Castle PE, Hunt WC, Langsfeld E, Wheeler CM; New Mexico HPV Pap Registry Steering Committee. Three-year risk of cervical precancer and cancer after the detection of low-risk human papillomavirus genotypes targeted by a commercial test. Obstet Gynecol 2014;123(1):49-56.
  8. Thomsen LT, Frederiksen K, Munk C, et al. High-risk and low-risk human papillomavirus and the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cancer. Obstet Gynecol 2014;123(1):57-64.
  9. Blomberg M, Friis S, Munk C, Bautz A, Kjaer SK. Genital warts and risk of cancer: a Danish study of nearly 50 000 patients with genital warts. J Infect Dis 2012;205(10):1544-53.
  10. Cogliano VJ, Baan R, Straif K, et al. Preventable exposures associated with human cancers. J Natl Cancer Inst 2011;103(24):1827-39.
  11. International Collaboration of Epidemiological Studies of Cervical Cancer. Cervical carcinoma and sexual behaviour: collaborative reanalysis of individual data on 15,461 women with cervical carcinoma and 29,164 women without cervical carcinoma from 21 epidemiological studies. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(4):1060-9.
  12. Grund J, Bryant T, Jackson I, et al. Association between male circumcision and women's biomedical health outcomes: a systematic review. The Lancet Global Health 2017;5(11):e1113-e1122.
  13. Albero G, Castellsagué X, Giuliano AR, Bosch FX. Male circumcision and genital human papillomavirus: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Sex Transm Dis 2012;39(2):104-13.
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International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1]

Cervical cancer risk is 6 times higher in women with HIV/AIDS, versus women in the general population, a meta-analysis showed.[2] Cervical cancer risk among women with HIV may be reduced by treatment with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), perhaps because HAART improves immune function to support Human papillomavirus (HPV) clearance.[3-6]

References

  1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 117. Accessed January 2017.
  2. Castellsagué X, Pawlita M, Roura E, et al.Prospective seroepidemiologic study on the role of Human Papillomavirus and other infections in cervical carcinogenesis: evidence from the EPIC cohort. Int J Cancer 2014;135(2):440-52.
  3. Adler DH. The impact of HAART on HPV-related cervical disease. Curr HIV Res 2010;8(7):493-7.
  4. Chen YC, Li CY, Liu HY, Lee NY, Ko WC, Ko NY. Effect of antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of cervical neoplasia among HIV-infected women: a population-based cohort study in Taiwan. AIDS 2014;28(5):709-15.
  5. Blitz S, Baxter J, Raboud J, et al. Evaluation of HIV and highly active antiretroviral therapy on the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and cervical cytopathologic findings in HIV-positive and high-risk HIV-negative women. J Infect Dis 2013;208(3):454-62.
  6. Adler DH, Kakinami L, Modisenyane T, et al. Increased regression and decreased incidence of human papillomavirus-related cervical lesions among HIV-infected women on HAART. AIDS 2012;26(13):1645-52.
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International Agency for Research on Cancer classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] An estimated 10% of cervical cancers in the UK are linked to use of oral contraceptives.[2]

Cervical cancer risk is up to doubled in current oral contraceptive users who have used oral contraceptives for 5+ years, compared with never users, pooled- and meta-analyses have shown.[3-5] Cervical cancer risk may increase with longer duration of use,[3,4] but is no higher in women who last took oral contraceptives 10+ years ago, compared with never-users.[3]

See also

See IARC's classifications on the role of this risk factor

Find out more about the definitions and evidence for this data

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our health information on hormones and cancer

References

  1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 117. Accessed January 2017.
  2. Centre for Cancer Prevention, et al. Cancers attributable to exposure to hormones in the UK in 2010. Br J Cancer 2011;105 Suppl 2:S42-8.
  3. International Collaboration of Epidemiological Studies of Cervical Cancer, Appleby P, Beral V, et al. Cervical cancer and hormonal contraceptives: collaborative reanalysis of individual data for 16,573 women with cervical cancer and 35,509 women without cervical cancer from 24 epidemiological studies. Lancet 2007;370(9599):1609-21.
  4. Gierisch JM, Coeytaux RR, Urrutia RP, et al. Oral contraceptive use and risk of breast, cervical, colorectal, and endometrial cancers: a systematic review. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2013;22(11):1931-43.
  5. La Vecchia C, Boccia S. Oral contraceptives, human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. Eur J Cancer Prev 2014;23(2):110-2.
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Cervical squamous cell carcinoma risk is 74-80% higher in women with a first-degree relative (mother, sister, daughter) with cervical squamous cell carcinoma, compared with the general population, a cohort study showed.[1] Cervical adenocarcinoma risk is 39-69% higher in women with a first-degree relative with cervical squamous cell carcinoma, compared with the general population, a cohort study showed.[1]

This probably reflects shared environmental risk factors including human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, as well as possible genetic factors.[1]

See also

Find out more about the definitions and evidence for this data

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

See more information about how inherited genes can be a cause of cancer

References

  1. Hussain SK, Sundquist J, Hemminki K. Familial clustering of cancer at human papillomavirus-associated sites according to the Swedish Family-Cancer Database. Int J Cancer 2008;122(8):1873-8.
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Having children

Cervical cancer risk is 15% higher in women who have had 1 full-term pregnancy compared with those who have had none, a pooled analysis showed; the risk increases with number of full-term pregnancies.[1] Cervical cancer risk among parous women is 64% higher in those with 7+ full-term pregnancies, versus those with 1 or 2, this pooled analysis showed.[1] The association with parity is limited to squamous cell carcinoma, with no association for adenocarcinoma, this pooled analysis showed.[1] The reasons for these associations are unknown.

Younger age at first giving birth

Cervical cancer risk among parous women is 77% higher in those under 17 years old at their first full-term pregnancy, compared with those aged 25 or older, a pooled analysis has shown; the risk decreases with older age at first full-term pregnancy.[1] The association with age at first full-term pregnancy is limited to squamous cell carcinoma, with no association for adenocarcinoma, this pooled analysis showed.[1]

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International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] 21% of cervical cancer cases in the UK are caused by smoking.[2]

Cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) risk is 46% higher in current smokers versus never-smokers, a pooled analysis showed.[3] Cervical SCC (invasive or in situ) risk increases with number of cigarettes smoked per day, a pooled analysis showed.[3]

Cervical SCC risk is not associated with past smoking, only current smoking, a pooled analysis showed.[3] Carcinoma in situ risk is 83% higher in current smokers, and 32% higher in past smokers, versus never-smokers, a pooled analysis showed.[3] Cervical adenocarcinoma risk is not associated with smoking, a pooled analysis showed.[3] Cervical cancer risk may be higher in current smokers because they are more likely to have human papillomavirus (HPV) infection (more likely to contract HPV, less able to clear HPV, or both),[4] or because smoking causes cancerous progression in HPV-infected cells.[3]

UK portrait version shown here. Country versions, cancers caused by other risk factors, and landscape formats are available for free from our cancer risk publications.

See also

See IARC's classifications on the role of this risk factor

Find out more about the definitions and evidence for this data

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our statistics on tobacco and cancer

View our health information on smoking and cancer

References

  1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 117*. Accessed January 2017.
  2. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.
  3. International Collaboration of Epidemiological Studies of Cervical Cancer, Appleby P, Beral V, et al. Carcinoma of the cervix and tobacco smoking: collaborative reanalysis of individual data on 13,541 women with carcinoma of the cervix and 23,017 women without carcinoma of the cervix from 23 epidemiological studies. Int J Cancer 2006;118(6):1481-95.
  4. Vaccarella S, Herrero R, Snijders PJ, et al. Smoking and human papillomavirus infection: pooled analysis of the International Agency for Research on Cancer HPV Prevalence Surveys. Int J Epidemiol 2008;37(3):536-46.
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Cancer stats explained

See information and explanations on terminology used for statistics and reporting of cancer, and the methods used to calculate some of our statistics.

Cancer stats explained

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the many organisations across the UK which collect, analyse, and share the data which we use, and to the patients and public who consent for their data to be used. Find out more about the sources which are essential for our statistics.